New York, 16th October 2007
Dear Fellow Shareholder,
On 4th September 2007 we wrote to Stephen Green, Group
Chairman, requesting that the Board conduct an
independent review of HSBC’s strategy and governance to
address long term underperformance of its shares relative to
that of its peers.
We also contacted Simon Robertson, HSBC’s Senior
Independent Director, to present the evidence and analysis
underlying our request for an independent review.
Our analysis was conducted with the involvement of a
leading firm of international management consultants over
several months.
On 19th September,
45 minutes before the meeting arranged
to discuss the evidence,
we received faxes from Messrs. Green
and Robertson rejecting the request for an independent
review on the grounds that the Board had already met earlier
in the year to discuss strategy. The assertion made was that
HSBC has a clear strategy and that this is supported
by shareholders.
This may well be the case but we question whether the Board
(and shareholders who were consulted) received a truly
independent and objective picture of the Group’s poor
competitive position in most of its key markets.
We also question whether the Board was given (or was
otherwise able to obtain) independent information it would
have needed for an impartial assessment of the value to
shareholders of alternative strategies.
We have, of course, seen the “new” strategy which was
communicated to shareholders in March this year. This
emphasised HSBC’s commitment to invest in emerging
markets (but without changing the long-standing aim of
deriving 50% of income from emerging markets and 50%
from OECD markets) and to benefit from the increase in
world trade and from the fact that we are all living longer.
We believe, however, that this “new” strategy fails to address
the main reasons for HSBC’s perennial underperformance
compared to the majority of its peers.
Given the Board’s unwillingness to take our proposals
seriously, we decided to take our evidence and analysis to
more than 40 of HSBC’s largest shareholders, in several cases
meeting them more than once.
The responses we received were far more supportive than we
had been led by HSBC to expect. For the record, only two
shareholders refused to meet with us. Most of the rest agreed
that there are real areas of concern to be addressed by the
Board concerning strategy, execution and/or governance,
some of which they had not been aware of before. We have
seen some of the letters that institutional shareholders have
sent to HSBC supporting our initiative as well as some of
HSBC’s responses. We also know that many institutional
shareholders have asked to meet with the Board and
management privately to discuss the issues raised by
our analysis.
Needless to say, the real challenge will be to
find the right answers. However, the starting
point must be for the Board to accept
the validity and legitimacy of shareholders’
concerns in the first place, to accept that the
review carried out at the beginning of the year
may not have been sufficient, and to start
acting independently. This is what we – and
the many shareholders of HSBC who support
us – are seeking at this stage.
We are now making our report available to all interested
parties. You should note that we have amended the report to
incorporate the many helpful and constructive comments and
suggestions made by some of HSBC’s largest shareholders.
The following is a summary of the key points of the report.
Share Price Performance
• It is uncontested that HSBC has underperformed its chosen
peer group of 28 leading banks in terms of total
shareholder return (TSR) for a very long time. HSBC has
been a third quartile performer for all but two periods
going back to 1994 (i.e., over 2 years, 3 years, 4 years etc.)
and a fourth quartile performer against its 22 largest
emerging markets competitors, which would have been
part of the peer group prior to 2005.
• Over the past 12 months, HSBC’s performance has been
better, but our evidence suggests that this is due to its
emerging markets exposure and not due to its strategy of
diversifying its income globally during the recent market
turmoil. There is no evidence to suggest that diversified
global banks have systematically outperformed during 2007.
Strategy
In retail and commercial banking there are significant cost
and revenue advantages in securing local scale. In investment
banking and capital markets the benefits generally accrue to
global players. HSBC fails to capture advantages in either of
these areas because it is pursuing a global strategy in retail
and commercial banking and a regional (emerging markets
focused) strategy in investment banking. It is the only major
bank to be doing so.
Retail and commercial banking
• Approximately 70% of HSBC’s 2006 profits before tax
came from retail and commercial banking. HSBC has for
years been misallocating capital in this area by seeking
to diversify the geographic source of its earnings rather
than aiming for critical mass in selected markets where it
has real comparative advantage.
• HSBC is not a top three player in any of its key retail
markets except for Hong Kong, and its profitability
compared with that of its local peers has been weak as
a consequence. HSBC’s return on assets is lower than
the local market average in the U.K., the U.S., France,
Mexico, Brazil and India to name but a few. In many of
these markets the issue is simply lack of scale.
• Over the past few weeks HSBC has proposed (or is
pushing ahead with) new initiatives in Korea, Vietnam,
Japan, Georgia, the Czech Republic and Peru. In none of
these markets is it obvious that HSBC has any
comparative advantage at all. These initiatives simply
add to the number of subscale businesses in the Group.
• HSBC’s obsession with diversification has also resulted in
a substantial portfolio of minority stakes in companies
which it does not fully control.
Investment banking and capital markets
(CIBM)
• In investment banking and capital markets HSBC is not a
leading player globally, or in any geographic market or
in any key product area.
• Over the past 15 years HSBC has repeatedly attempted to
build a leading business in these areas, both organically
and by acquisition, but has failed.
• We are convinced that HSBC’s recent decision to
compete on a regional basis (i.e., focusing on emerging
markets) will result in further massive value destruction.
• As demonstrated by HSBC’s weak position in China’s
2006 capital markets league tables (24th with respect to
IPOs and 20th with respect to debt issuance – according
to Thomson Financial), even emerging market issuers
need to deal with global firms.
India and China
• India and China pose a particular conundrum for HSBC,
whose roots in Asia, it might be argued, give it a
particular advantage. In fact, the answer is not as
straightforward as some might think.
• Whilst recognizing that India and China are tantalizing
prospects, the fact is that HSBC has chosen to compete in
retail banking against domestic competitors which
already have scale and critical mass as well as
government sponsorship and legal protection.
• HSBC may have to recognize that in these two markets,
the issue is not government protection but the
difficulties of acquiring sufficient scale (as elsewhere).
Even if the restrictions on acquiring domestic banks were
lifted, it may make no sense for HSBC to do so given the
high multiples at which these banks trade and
the limited synergies that are likely to arise from
integrating these retail franchises with HSBC’s existing
retail activities.
• In these markets the real opportunity may only be
available to full service investment banks operating in
the capital markets, and not in retail banking. HSBC’s
weak position in investment banking and capital
markets limits its ability to compete in the part of the
market which is growing fastest and has the fewest
restrictions on foreign companies.
• This leads us to ask ourselves if HSBC really has a
differentiated strategy in these markets. If so, this needs
to be articulated.
Other
• HSBC needs to recognize that its strong capital position,
which has been fungible in the past, may no longer
be such an advantage in the future, particularly in light
of the requirement to incorporate and capitalize
its regional businesses separately for local regulatory
purposes.
• HSBC’s Hong Kong business is already incorporated and
the decision to incorporate its Chinese business has
already been taken. The Indian businesses will also be
incorporated before the end of 2009.
• That means that HSBC may well have no surplus capital
at all.
Questions for the Board
We believe that the time has come for the Board to ‘grasp the
nettle’ and ask itself some difficult questions.
• Does it make sense for HSBC to continue allocating capital
to acquire an ever growing number of subscale local banks
or should it not aim to build critical mass where it has true
competitive advantage? Shouldn’t HSBC decide which of its
retail and commercial banking businesses are truly core
and scale these up rather than pursuing diversification
(beyond what might be optimal) for its own sake?
• If HSBC is to secure real value from its investment in its
OECD businesses, it will either have to grow them,
organically or by acquisition, or it should consider selling
them to others who can benefit from local consolidation.
Given the size of these retail banking businesses, the
decision to retain and grow them will require HSBC to
allocate significantly more capital to the developed
markets than is currently being suggested. The Board must
take a view on this and communicate its position clearly.
• Buying minority stakes in listed emerging market
companies could be regarded as buying ‘options’ for the
very long term. Just how many such ‘options’ should HSBC
be holding, particularly when the capital used to acquire
them cannot be counted towards HSBC’s capital base for
regulatory purposes?
• If HSBC is unable to build or acquire a leading global
capital markets platform, should it not consider liquidating
the majority of this business which absorbs half of the
Group’s balance sheet rather than carrying on with a
strategy that has little prospect of success? Or should HSBC
not merge with a competitor which truly has global scale?
• If the future of the Group is really in China, how does HSBC
plan to become a leading player – without diluting its
shareholders by overpaying for acquisitions – when the
restrictions are finally lifted?
We estimate that, without a significant change in strategy,
“joining up the pieces” will add no more than 3% to
HSBC’s total value. The Emperor needs to be told that he is
not wearing any clothes: there are almost no synergies
associated with being the ‘world’s local bank’.
Governance
• In most major UK companies, a challenge to a failed strategy
may come from one of at least three different quarters: from
the Chairman, from the non-executives directors or from the
ranks of senior management.
• In the case of HSBC, the Chairman (who is responsible for
strategy and governance) is not independent and the
management compensation arrangements (as embodied in
the 2005 Share Plan) do not align the interests of
management and shareholders.
• This places the non-executive directors in an unusually
difficult position.
Conclusions
In our view, there are a number of different strategies which
could deliver significantly more value for shareholders than
the strategy which HSBC has chosen to follow today (which is
really little different from that which was followed in
the past).
Although we have avoided being prescriptive
to date, we believe that our analysis
inescapably leads to the conclusion that, in
order to unlock the very substantial value of
the Group, the Board needs to consider some
radical alternatives.
In the mean time, HSBC should call a halt to the strategy of
diversifying earnings for its own sake.
Yours sincerely
Eric Knight
Glen Suarez
Knight Vinke Asset Management LLC
Copies of Knight Vinke’s report “HSBC – Issues and
Recommendations” may be obtained on request by e-mail to
hermitage@kvamllc.com.
OPEN LETTER TO THE SHAREHOLDERS OF HSBC HOLDINGS PLC